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☆ 'Tax the bad' to boost climate finance, COP28 panel advises
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-29 | by ( Mark John | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

[1/3] A general view shows Marathon Petroleum's refinery, following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, in Anacortes, Washington, U.S., March 9, 2022. Higher carbon taxes - including levies on emissions from the maritime and aviation sectors - should be among options COP28 studies, the panel recommended. Subsidies for fossil fuels totalled $1.3 trillion, and substantially more if counting the societal cost of dealing with emissions and pollution. Co-chair Nicholas Stern, professor at LSE/Grantham Research Institute, said there was a compelling case for energy companies to make voluntary contributions. "I think that moral obligation is something that will be emphasised at COP28, and indeed before and after," he said.

Persons: David Ryder, Amar Bhattacharya, Vera Songwe, Nicholas Stern, Mark John, Barbara Lewis Organizations: REUTERS, Summit, United Arab, Brookings, Center, Sustainable Development, Investments, World Bank, LSE, Grantham Research Institute, Aviation, Thomson Locations: Ukraine, Anacortes , Washington , U.S, Dubai, United Arab Emirates, Paris, COP28, China

In Hungary, central bank governor Gyorgy Matolcsy is under pressure from Viktor Orban's government to cut rates further ahead of local and European Parliament elections next year. Reuters GraphicsTANGIBLE BENEFITSA 2021 World Bank survey found that political meddling in central bank policy led to sustained periods of high inflation in emerging market economies such as Turkey and Argentina. "Attempts to bring the president of the NBP before the State Tribunal can be directly interpreted as an attack on the independence of the central bank," the spokesman said. How those premia evolve will depend partly on how politics in Poland and Hungary is perceived by investors to influence the central banks in the months to come. "Everything else being equal, the less independent the central bank, the more real yield you need to have to be compensated for the risk," said Arif Joshi at Lazard Asset Management.

Persons: Adam Glapinski, Gyorgy Matolcsy, Viktor Orban's, Donald Tusk's, Karen Vartapetov, Paul Gamble, Glapinski's, Glapinski, Marta Kightley, Orban, Peter Virovacz, Arif Joshi, Karol Badohal, Gergely, Mark John, Toby Chopra Organizations: WARSAW, Law and Justice, U.S . Federal Reserve, EU, Sovereign, Investor, Emerging, Fitch, Local, ING, Lazard Asset Management, Thomson Locations: Hungarian, Poland, Hungary, BUDAPEST, Europe, Turkey, Argentina, WARSAW

☆ Economic models buckle under strain of climate reality
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-22 | by ( Mark John | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

But detractors say those numbers are the product of economic models that are not fit to capture the full extent of climate damage. A year earlier, the Trump administration cited similar models to justify replacing the Obama-era Clean Power Plan with one allowing higher emissions from coal-burning plants. At issue are the "integrated assessment models" (IAMs) economists use to draw conclusions on anything from output losses to financial risk or the pricing of carbon markets. Line chart with data from Climate Tracker shows varying predictions of global warming damage as percentage of GDP. "Our main message is: 'Economists, speak to climate scientists and come up with results that make sense'," he said.

Persons: William Nordhaus, Trump, Obama, Isabel Schnabel, Leon Walras, doesn't, Thierry Philipponnat, Steve Keen, Nordhaus, Rupert Thorne, Livio Stracca, Jean Boissinot, Nicholas Stern, Stern, Watch's Philipponnat, Mark John, Barbara Lewis Organizations: Central Bank, Finance Watch, Reuters, Network, Greening, " University College of London, ECB, NGFS, LSE, Grantham Research Institute, European Union, Thomson Locations: Dubai, Paris, Brussels

☆ Europe's problems are far bigger than a shallow recession
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-14 | by ( Balazs Koranyi | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Deep structural problems mean Europe is bound to trail most other big economic areas for years to come. The labour market remains tight and the world economy is rebounding, so external demand is also likely to be healthier. Fearing it will be difficult to hire in future, firms are now hanging onto workers, creating even more labour market tightness, potentially fuelling wage growth and weakening productivity. The potential growth rate for Europe's largest economy is now below 1%. European Union governments are meanwhile struggling to reach consensus on bigger questions that will help shape the future.

Persons: Philip Lane, Erik Nielsen, Eric Gaillard, Europe's, There's, Lane, Reinhard Cluse, Mark John, Catherine Evans Organizations: Central Bank's, REUTERS, European Commission, UBS, European Union, Thomson Locations: FRANKFURT, Europe, Nice, France, United States, Germany

[1/3] Tom Barrack, CEO of Colony Capital, speaks at the Republican National Convention in Cleveland, Ohio, U.S. July 21, 2016. Here are five criminal cases where the defendant testified:Theranos founder Elizabeth HolmesThe Theranos founder took the stand at her criminal trial in 2021, testifying over several days that she did not intend to defraud investors in the now defunct blood-testing startup. Middendorf, who was head of a department at KPMG, testified at the trial in Manhattan that when he learned another employee had obtained the information, he reported it to his boss. Ex-HSBC executive Mark JohnsonThe former HSBC executive was convicted in 2017 of defrauding a bank client in a $3.5 billion currency trade. Reporting by Jody Godoy in New York; Editing by Noeleen Walder and Daniel WallisOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Tom Barrack, Jim Young, Sam Bankman, Fried, Elizabeth Holmes, Holmes, Donald Trump, David Middendorf, Middendorf, Mark Johnson, Johnson, Jean Boustani, Boustani, Jody Godoy, Noeleen Walder, Daniel Wallis Organizations: Colony Capital, Republican National Convention, REUTERS, United, United Arab Emirates, U.S, KPMG, Supreme, HSBC, Prosecutors, Credit Suisse, Thomson Locations: Cleveland , Ohio, U.S, San Jose , California, Brooklyn, United Arab, UAE, Manhattan, British, Lebanese, Mozambican, Mozambique, New York

☆ Analysis: Middle East throws central banks yet more unknowns
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-20 | by ( Mark John | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Now, to complicate matters for a professional caste which prides itself on being data-driven, the Middle East is throwing a new set of real but unquantifiable risks into their equations. Unless the picture changes dramatically in coming days, the European Central Bank, U.S. Federal Reserve, Bank of England and Bank of Japan are already expected to keep their policy rates on hold in meetings over the next two weeks. ECB rate-setter Yannis Stournaras, the governor of the Greek central bank, argued that Europe had broadly managed to absorb the effects of rising energy costs triggered by the Ukraine war and hoped it could do the same if further shocks emerged. For now, the conflict remains largely confined to Israel and Gaza, something S&P Global Market Intelligence said in a study this week was already "muddying the waters" for central banks. As the Fed's Powell put it: "Our institutional role at the Federal Reserve is to monitor these developments for their economic implications, which remain highly uncertain".

Persons: Jerome Powell, David Westin, Brendan McDermid, Powell, Huw Pill, Yannis Stournaras, Tetsuya Hiroshima, Fed's Powell, Dan Burns, Balazs Koranyi, Francesco Canepa, Maria Martinez, Leika, Kevin Yao, David Milliken, Tomasz Janowski Organizations: Federal, Anchor, Bloomberg, Street, Economic, of New, REUTERS, Bank of England, International Monetary Fund, European Central Bank, U.S, Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, Fed, ECB, Reuters Graphics, Reuters, Tokai, Toyota Motor Corp, P Global Market Intelligence, Thomson Locations: of New York, New York City, U.S, Israel, Ukraine, Iran, Hormuz, Europe, United States, Japan, Gaza, Washington, Frankfurt, Berlin, Tokyo, Beijing, London

☆ Key takeaways from the IMF/World Bank meetings
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Global inflation is seen dropping from 6.9% this year to a still-high 5.8% next. Italian central bank governor Ignazio Visco said there was an impression markets were "reevaluating the term premium" as investors become more nervous about holding longer term debt. One debt restructuring deal emerged: Zambia finally agreed a debt rework memorandum of understanding with creditors including China and France. Sri Lanka said on Thursday it reached an agreement with the Export-Import Bank of China covering about $4.2 billion of debt, while talks with other official creditors are stalling. There was much talk ahead of Marrakech on revamping the IMF and World Bank to better reflect the emergence of economies like China and Brazil.

Persons: Ajay Banga, Mercy Tembon, Finance Serhiy Marchenko, Ceda Ogada, Kristalina Georgieva, Pierre, Olivier Gourinchas, Ignazio Visco, Joyce Chang, Vitor Gaspar, Mehmet Simsek, Murat Ulgen, Kate Donald, Ahmed El Jechtimi, Andrea Shalal, David Lawder, Leika Kihara, Elisa Martinuzzi, Rachel Savage, Jorgelina, Rosario, Balazs Koranyi, Mark John, Christina Fincher Organizations: Bank, Finance, International Monetary Fund, Emerging, Research, HSBC, Reuters, Export, Import Bank of, World Bank, Oxfam International's Washington DC Office, Thomson Locations: Ukraine, MARRAKECH, Morocco, Moroccan, Marrakech, Israel, Central, United States, China, Italy, Italian, Turkey, Kenya, Zambia, France, Sri Lanka, Import Bank of China, Brazil, U.S

BOULDER, Colo. (AP) — Deion Sanders doesn’t want anyone sleeping on what's happening with his reconstructed Colorado Buffaloes. Who wants to stay up until 8 o'clock for a darn game?” Sanders said on his weekly radio show. When the Buffaloes (4-2, 1-2 Pac-12) played Colorado State on Sept. 16 — kickoff was at 8:21 p.m. Mountain — the game didn’t finish until 12:25 a.m. One thing Sanders is a fan of: Stanford (1-4, 0-3) and first-year Cardinal coach Troy Taylor. Colorado boasts five of the eight top-watched college football games this season in terms of viewership, according to research provided from the school.

Persons: — Deion Sanders, isn't, “, ” Sanders, Mark Johnson, Sanders, It's, God we’re, Cardinal, Troy Taylor, Dwayne “, ” Johnson, Lil Wayne, Terrell Owens, Kevin Garnett, ” Taylor, they’ve Organizations: Colorado Buffaloes, It's, Buffaloes, Stanford, Folsom, Colorado State, Washington State, Buffs, Rams, ESPN, Colorado, AP Locations: BOULDER, Colo, Southern California, Colorado

STOCKHOLM, Oct 9 (Reuters) - American economic historian Claudia Goldin won the 2023 Nobel economics prize for her work examining wage inequality between men and women, the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences said on Monday. "This year's Laureate in the Economic Sciences, Claudia Goldin, provided the first comprehensive account of women's earnings and labour market participation through the centuries," the prize-giving body said in a statement. Goldin, who in 1990 became the first woman to be tenured at the Harvard economics department, is only the third woman to win the Nobel economics prize. "Claudia Goldin's discoveries have vast societal implications," said Randi Hjalmarsson, member of the Economic Prize committee. As with the other Nobel prizes, the vast majority of the economics awards have gone to men.

Persons: Claudia Goldin, Alfred Nobel, Goldin, Hans Ellegren, Claudia Goldin's, Randi Hjalmarsson, Jakob Svensson, Friedrich August von Hayek, Milton Friedman, Paul Krugman, Ben Bernanke, Elinor Ostrom, Esther Duflo, Simon Johnson, Mark John, Niklas Pollard, Johan Ahlander, Terje Solsvik, Catherine Evans Organizations: Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Sveriges, Economic Sciences, Harvard, Pew Research, Commission, Social, Thomson Locations: STOCKHOLM, COVID, Norwegian, Iranian, United States, Europe, U.S

☆ Choppy waters as Europe navigates China-US rivalry
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-04 | by ( Mark John | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

The fracturing of the rules and bonds tying the global economy together - so-called "geo-economic fragmentation" - seemed implausible only a few years ago. Nowhere is it more pressing than for Europe, whose wealth has always relied on trade, from its rapacious colonial history through to its reinvention as self-styled champion of WTO rules. Both the United States and Europe have been hardening their stance towards Beijing while stressing the rules of world trade must be fairly applied. The main EU concern is that the U.S. proposals could break WTO rules by discriminating against third parties. "And we really hope ... that after the election in the United States this is going to continue."

Persons: Jon Nazca, Gordon Brown, Brown, Brad Setser, Biden, Joe Biden, Donald Trump, Trump, Wang Huiyao, Petra Sigmund, Philip Blenkinsop, Joe Cash, Belen Carreno, Mark John, Catherine Evans Organizations: Triple, Majestic, APM, REUTERS, Trade Organization, USA, International Monetary, European, Reuters, for, Thomson Locations: Algeciras, Spain, China, Europe, America, American, United States, Moroccan, Marrakech, Beijing, Washington, Brussels, U.S, EU, for China, IMF, Madrid

Retail fuel prices in the U.S. and Europe have risen to multi-month highs as crude prices have rallied. "If energy prices increase and stay high, that'll have an effect on spending, and it may have an effect on consumer expectations for inflation, things like that. High interest rates are already curbing demand across Western economies, including for oil. The U.S. Federal Reserve on Wednesday pressed pause on interest rates, but did not rule out one more hike this year. President Joe Biden has already promised to cut prices, though has not said how, and in the short term the impact of autumn refinery maintenance on supplies could keep prices high.

Persons: Mike Segar, Brent, Jerome Powell, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Goldman, PVM's Tamas Varga, I'm, Craig Erlam, Ajay Parmar, Joe Biden, Gordon Balmer, Natalie Grover, Robert Harvey, Mark John, Balazs Koranyi, Dan Burns, Simon Webb, Barbara Lewis Organizations: Exxon, REUTERS, . West Texas Intermediate, Reuters, Retail, Federal, International Energy Agency, Organization of, Petroleum, U.S . Federal Reserve, HSBC, Energy Information Administration, U.S, Diesel, Energy, Petrol Retailers, Thomson Locations: Edgewater , New Jersey, U.S, OPEC, Europe, Brazil, Guyana, United States, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Ukraine, Britain, France, London, Frankfurt, New York

[1/2] A general view of Polish shoe retailer CCC shop is pictured, amid the coronavirus disease (COVID-19), in Warsaw, Poland, September 8, 2020. "Let me tell you, there was a time when I couldn't even afford to buy salmon, for example. Buczek has benefited from the fact that PiS has raised her pension as part of hefty welfare spending moves which, opinion surveys show, are easing Poles' concerns over high inflation. The Polish minimum wage, already the highest in central Europe, will rise by nearly a fifth next year. With many houseowners on variable loan rates, Warsaw recently extended a scheme for mortgage repayment holidays into next year.

Persons: Kacper, Jadwiga Buczek, Buczek, PiS, Steffen Dyck, Adam Glapinski, Fitch, Federico Barriga Salazar, Andrzej Kuzniak, Moody's Dyck, Kacper Pempel, Jan Strupczewski, Gergely, Mark John, Sharon Singleton Organizations: REUTERS, Reuters, Justice, European Union, European Commission, National Bank of, Sovereign Risk, Moody's, International Monetary Fund, Civic Coalition, Thomson Locations: Warsaw, Poland, WARSAW, Poland's, Europe, NBP, Brussels

☆ Global central banks unite in "higher for longer" credo
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-21 | by ( Mark John | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

The so-called "higher for longer" mantra is now the official stance of the U.S. Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and the Bank of England, as well as being echoed by monetary policy-makers from Oslo to Tapei. U.S. Federal Reserve policymakers had a similar message on Wednesday. Turkey's central bank confirmed its hawkish turn while in Asia, Taiwan's central bank flagged continued tight policy. Reuters Graphics"TIPPING POINT"Belgian central bank chief and ECB board member Pierre Wunsch - an early voice urging tougher central bank action to counter inflation from end-2021 - said on Thursday that monetary policy was now at the right level. That said, the prospect that global interest rates are pretty close to peak will be of huge relief to emerging economies suffering from heavy debt servicing loads.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Christine Lagarde, Kazuo Ueda, Ann, BoE, Andrew Bailey, Pierre Wunsch, Wunsch, COVID lockdowns, Jerome, Powell, Krishna Guha, Howard Schneider, Balazs Koranyi, Catherine Evans Organizations: European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, Kansas City Federal, REUTERS, U.S . Federal Reserve, Bank of England, U.S . Federal, Swiss National Bank, South African Reserve Bank, People's Bank of, Reuters, ECB, Reuters Global Markets, Economics, Sterling, Swiss, United, Thomson Locations: Jackson Hole , Wyoming, U.S, Central, Oslo, Tapei, Europe, Norway, Sweden, Asia, People's Bank of China, Belgian, United States, Ukraine, Washington, Frankfurt, London, Stockholm, Zurich, Ankara

☆ British commandos have trained hundreds of Ukrainian marines in the 'art' of amphibious raids
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-13 | by ( Stavros Atlamazoglou | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

For six months, British Royal Marines have been training hundreds of Ukrainian marines in "the art" of conducting commando raids and complicated amphibious operations. The British Royal Marines Commandos are one of the best amphibious-warfare units in the world. Ukrainian marines training with British Royal Marines in March 2023. Ukrainian marines training in the UK in February 2023. Ukrainian marines could also join the shadowy fight taking place in the marshes and inlets of the Dnipro River Delta.

Persons: Mark Johnson, Ben Wallace, Wallace, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Stavros Atlamazoglou Organizations: British Royal Marines, Ministry of Defence, British Royal Marine Commandos, British Royal Navy, Royal Navy, British Commandos, UK Royal Marines, British Royal Marines Commandos, Commandos, Royal Marines, Argentine, British Marines, Naval Center of Special, Hellenic Army, 575th Marine Battalion, Army, Johns Hopkins University, Johns Hopkins School, International Studies, Boston College Law School Locations: Ukrainian, Ukraine, Crimean, Crimea, British, Argentina, East Falkland, Dnipro, Russian, Delta

☆ Climate change adds workplace costs and hazards
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-07 | by ( Mark John | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

The 57-year-old's death in hospital was announced in late August - just as his trade union was ratifying a deal with UPS on improved heat protections. In a statement to local media, UPS (UPS.N) said it was cooperating with the authorities as they investigated the cause of death. "We train our people to recognize the symptoms of heat stress, and we respond immediately to any request for help," it said. Many European and other usually temperate countries still have no laws establishing maximum work temperatures. "Climate change is such a paradigm shift that all of us need to rethink these legacy economic assumptions," said NELP's Christman.

Persons: patchily, Chris Begley, Halshka Graczyk, Graczyk, Chaya, Anastasia Christman, Owen Tudor, Tudor, Jerome Volle, NELP's, David Stanway, Catherine Evans Organizations: UPS, Teamsters, International Labour Organization, Chiang Mai University, . Occupational Health, Safety Authority, Employment Law, International Trade Union Confederation, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Texas, Paris, Thailand, Myanmar, China, Singapore

☆ Exclusive: New rules would give Europe more scope for military spending post-Ukraine invasion
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-07 | by ( Jan Strupczewski | Thomson Reuters | Jan Is The Acting Bureau Chief In Brussels. He Has Been Covering European Union Policy | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

EU fiscal rules underpin the euro currency used in 20 nations by limiting government borrowing. Currently only nine EU members meet a NATO alliance defence spending goal of 2% of national output, with four - Finland, Romania, Hungary and the Slovak Republic - above that only in 2023. After Moscow's invasion of Ukraine in early 2022, many European countries neighbouring Russia called for military spending to be excluded outright from EU deficit calculations. 'NOT HEARD A NO'Opposition to a full exemption from EU calculations stemmed from concern that military spending could be a very broad category that could help hide a lot of ordinary expenses. By stipulating that military spending would only be a "relevant factor" that could help avoid disciplinary action, the new rules would leave it to the Commission's judgement what spending would be eligible.

Persons: Valentyn, Deal, Jan Strupczewski, Mark John, Andrew Cawthorne Organizations: Union, NATO, REUTERS, European, Thomson Locations: Ukraine, Kyiv, BRUSSELS, EU, Finland, Romania, Hungary, Slovak Republic, France, Germany, Italy, NATO, Russia, U.S

☆ Momentum growing for ECB rate hike pause as growth falters -sources
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-25 | by ( Balazs Koranyi | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

"The number of voices advocating a pause is multiplying as the data roll in," said one of the sources, who asked not to be named. Several of the sources said they saw chances evenly split between a hike and a pause, while a smaller number saw a pause as more likely. But none said they saw a hike as the most likely outcome, even if that was their preference. That marks a distinct shift from six weeks ago when a hike was still seen as most likely in September. Arguments for a pause centre on growing recession fears, the rapid deterioration of China's growth outlook, benign wage growth readings and arguments that past ECB hikes are increasingly working their way through the economy.

Persons: Wolfgang Rattay, JACKSON, Jackson, Balazs Koranyi, Mark John, Catherine Evans Organizations: European Central Bank, REUTERS, Central Bank, ECB, U.S, U.S . Federal, Employment, Thomson Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, , Wyoming, Europe, U.S .

☆ Analysis: A year on, Europe less fearful of U.S. green subsidies push
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-17 | by ( Jan Strupczewski | Thomson Reuters | Jan Is The Acting Bureau Chief In Brussels. He Has Been Covering European Union Policy | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Solar panels are seen atop a hops plantation in the Bavarian Holledau region in Au, Germany, June 19, 2023. And already, those subsidies are flowing: German conglomerate Thyssenkrupp (TKAG.DE) will invest around 3 billion euros ($3.27 billion) in a proposed green steel plant in Duisburg, Germany, including over 2 billion euros in state subsidies given EU approval in late July. But it noted the U.S. model also had uncertainty built in because a change of administration could end IRA subsidies. The complexity of EU financing through the recovery fund means it is available only to bigger companies, leaving smaller firms struggling to benefit. ($1 = 0.9184 euros)Reporting by Jan Strupczewski; editing by Mark John and Susan FentonOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Louisa, Joe Biden's, Biden, Niclas Poitiers, Jan Strupczewski, Mark John, Susan Fenton Organizations: REUTERS, United States, Union, Biden, EU, Zero Industry, European Commission, Sovereignty Fund, Ukraine, Russian, EV, Zero, Thomson Locations: Bavarian, Au, Germany, EU, BRUSSELS, United, Europe, Ukraine, Brussels, United States, Duisburg, U.S, France, China

☆ Analysis: ECB is on back foot and for once it's down to Germany
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-10 | by ( Francesco Canepa | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

The logo of the European Central Bank (ECB) is pictured outside its headquarters in Frankfurt, Germany, April 26, 2018. This is forcing a change of tune at the ECB -- from ruling out a pause in its steepest and longest streak of interest rate hikes to openly talking about one as soon as next month. Higher borrowing costs hurt manufacturers particularly hard because they depend on investment and no euro zone country has a larger industrial sector than Germany. "They've made a mistake in accentuating underlying inflation too much," said Carsten Brzeski, global head of macro for ING Research, said. And ECB board member Fabio Panetta then made the case for "persistence" in keeping rates high rather than raising them further.

Persons: Kai Pfaffenbach, Richard Portes, It's, Emperor Nicholas I of Russia, Ralph Solveen, Portes, They've, Carsten Brzeski, Ricardo Reis, Fabio Panetta, Francesco Canepa, Mark John, Christina Fincher Organizations: European Central Bank, REUTERS, ECB, London Business School, Berlin, ING Research, London School of Economics, ABN, AMRO, Thomson Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, FRANKFURT, Greece, Italy, China, Russia, United States, Portugal, Ireland, Spain, Cyprus, Europe, Ottoman Empire, Ukraine

☆ ECB is on back foot and for once it's down to Germany
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-10 | by ( Francesco Canepa | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

NEW YORK/LONDON, Aug 10 (Reuters) - Lean times faced by many U.S. and European companies may last longer than expected as they try to sell off their bulging inventories in an economic climate where demand is stalling. Full-to-bursting warehouses means fewer orders for manufacturers, which translates into lower levels of business activity and, ultimately, weaker growth. Now, global demand is falling as borrowing costs have risen, so companies have started running down stocks. Maersk controls about one-sixth of global container trade, transporting goods for a host of major retailers and consumer goods companies. Refinitiv I/B/E/S data shows U.S. and European companies are expected to report their worst quarterly results in years.

Persons: Vincent Clerc, Hugo Boss, Moller, Stanley Black, Decker, destocking, Levi Strauss, Rajiv Sharma, Arun Sundaram, Guillermo Novo, Cyrus de la Rubia, Siddharth Cavale, David Gaffen, Josephine Mason, Mark John, Jonathan Cable, Helen Reid, Jane Merriman Organizations: U.S, Maersk, Heineken, 3M, . Bureau of Labor Statistics, CFRA Research, Retailers, BASF, London, Rutgers University, Hamburg Commercial Bank, doesn't, Thomson Locations: Ukraine, U.S, United States, Ashland, Hamburg, New York, London

☆ Analysis: No decoupling, but West and China drift apart
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-08 | by ( Mark John | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Containers are seen at the Yangshan Deep Water Port in Shanghai, China, as the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak continues, October 19, 2020. But underlying trade and investment trends point to an unmistakable long-term drift in commercial ties with the West. Take foreign direct investment - the more forward-looking clue as to where commercial ties between countries are heading. WATCH GERMANYSome, meanwhile, point to the fact that U.S.-China trade - exports and imports of goods combined - hit a record $690 billion last year as evidence that the reality does not match the frosty political rhetoric. Last month's China strategy document unveiled by Chancellor Olaf Scholz's three-way coalition left open exactly how far Berlin would ultimately go in reining in commercial ties.

Persons: Aly, China's, Louise Loo, Stephen Roach, Yale Law School's Paul Tsai, Angela Merkel, Chancellor Olaf Scholz's, Mark Leonard, –, Joe Biden, Loo, Mark John, Christina Fincher Organizations: REUTERS, West, Oxford Economics, Yale Law, Yale Law School's Paul Tsai China Center, Reuters, European Council, Foreign Relations, – Mercedes, Benz, BMW, Volkswagen, BASF –, Oxford, Thomson Locations: Port, Shanghai, China, United States, Europe, GERMANY, Germany, Berlin, reining, Taiwan, U.S

☆ Will AI be an economic blessing or curse? History offers clues
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-07 | by ( Mark John | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Backers of AI predict a productivity leap that will generate wealth and improve living standards. The productivity gains it was once lauded for have slowed across many economies. In a globalised economy, there are other reasons to doubt whether the potential gains of AI will be felt evenly. That is just one of several factors that will help determine how AI shapes our economic lives - from antitrust policies that ensure healthy competition among AI suppliers through to re-training of workforces. "The question is: will AI exacerbate existing inequalities or could it actually help us get back to something much fairer?"

Persons: Richard Erkhov, Yiannis, Simon Johnson, Johnson, Daron Acemoglu, jenny, Natixis, Stefano Scarpetta, MIT's Johnson, Mary Towers, Eva Mathews, Mark John, Catherine Evans Organizations: REUTERS, MIT Sloan School of Management, McKinsey, Hollywood, Reuters, Labour, Social Affairs, Economic Cooperation, Development, UN, POWER, Britain's Trades Union, OECD, Thomson Locations: Pascal, Nicosia, Cyprus, U.S, American, Paris, Bengaluru

☆ Climate change puts sovereigns at downgrade risk, study finds
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-06 | by ( Mark John | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Rising debt costs would be just one extra facet of the overall economic damage which climate change is already causing. While developing nations with lower credit scores are seen hit hardest by the physical effects of climate change, nations with the highest ranking credit scores were likely to face more severe downgrades simply because they have furthest to fall. The findings come as regulators around the world seek to better understand just how much damage to economies and the global financial system to expect from climate change. A European Central Bank paper last year urged greater clarity in how those risks were being built into credit ratings. S&P Global Ratings has published the environmental, social and governance (ESG) principles used in its credit ratings which include reference to the risk of economic damage from climate change and the costs associated with mitigating it.

Persons: Heatwaves, Patrycja Klusak, Klusak, Fitch, Mark John, Hugh Lawson Organizations: Management, University of East Anglia, UEA, University of Cambridge, Insurance, Allianz, Cambridge, Central Bank, Thomson Locations: Paris, China, India, United States, Canada, Cambridge

France has pledged to invest 12 billion euros in such urban renewal projects between 2014 and 2030 while many priority areas also benefit from other forms of government aid and subsidies. Researchers point out that total state support to poor areas nonetheless amounts to less than 1% of annual national output. Macron said this week that France would push ahead with urban renewal plans and look at ways to get faster results. Thomas Kirszbaum, a sociologist at Lille University who specialises in urban policy and integration, acknowledged that urban renewal efforts often lead to local improvements but did little to address a wider sense of discrimination. Instead, government officials argue that successive urban renewal plans have produced educational and other gains which allay a wider sense of social exclusion.

Persons: Nahel, Horaci Garcia, Macron, Cedric Gouth, Emmanuel Macron, Farid Hamoudea, Woippy, Gouth, ”, Mouhad Moradab, Woippy's, Moradab, Chad Jallouz, Thomas Kirszbaum, Jallouz, Leigh Thomas, Juliette Jabkhiro, Elizabeth Pineau, Tassilo Hummel, Mark John, Mark Heinrich Our Organizations: Saint, REUTERS, Reuters, Paris, Woippy’s, SECOND, Lille University, Labour Ministry, Thomson Locations: Nanterre, Eloy, Woippy, French, Metz, France, North, Paris, Europe, Belgium, Germany, Luxembourg, Woippy's, Moroccan

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